| Title of Work: |
The Road to the White House: Analyzing the Downfall of Presidential Primary Contenders |
| Presenters, Majors: |
Anna Fournier, Political Science |
Abstract: The Presidential primary process is a phenomenon that has been studied with the hopes of gaining an understanding about the variables that affect its outcome. Occurring every four years, primaries or caucuses are held in all fifty states to determine who wins delegates to the national convention, ultimately leading up to the party nomination. While the current literature covers a vast array of issues it does not fully address why a candidate would choose to drop out. Using delegate counts from each of the primaries in 2000, 2004, and 2008, as well as the Federal Election Commission monthly cash on hand reports, I find that the amount of money a candidate has, along with their delegate count, greatly affects their decision on whether to stay in or drop out of the 2000 and 2004 races, while the 2008 primary season appears to be deviating from this pattern. |